Making $18 an hour flipping burgers

Another article in the Calgary Herald points out that Calgary’s already record-low employment rate dropped even further .. to 2.8%.  That’s basically zero unemployment.  Literally ANYONE who needs a job in Calgary can find one right now.  Stories circulate about fast food places paying $18/hour and more to get and keep staff.. and even THAT isn’t working! There are companies shutting down ENTIRELY because they simply can’t get ANY staff to work for them.  Many fast food places are now operating on limited hours, simply because they can’t get people to work late night shifts!  The labour crunch in Alberta is painful, but as one of the people interviewed in this article points out, when one small business goes under because of the shortage, it means another business is doing well.  It means the other business is doing well enough to afford to pay higher rates, which attracts that worker away from the burger joint. While the media does its usual job of trying to strike fear and gloom into readers with their headlines, the reality is that these stories will continue in Calgary.  And as a result, Calgary’s real estate market will continue to have great strength.    The outcome of everything that’s happening in Alberta (and more specifically Calgary) should be obvious:

Record Low Unemployment  –> leads to –>  Higher Wages (to keep staff)

Increase In Wages    –> leads to –>  Attracting out of towners

More Out Of Town Workers –> leads to –>  A Huge Increase In Population

Increase In The Population  –> leads to –>  Less Housing To Buy Or Rent

Less Housing Available   –> leads to –>  Rising Rents & Home Prices

Rising Rents & Home Prices –> leads to –>  . . a big smile on Greg’s face.

Don’t be fooled by the media’s lament! One of the most predictable outcomes of this current labour crunch is that through this chain I just described, housing costs are going up.. including rents AND housing prices. Some articles talk about how people “won’t move here” because they can’t get affordable housing. FORGET IT.  One of the most predictable outcomes of this current labour crunch is that through this chain I just described, housing costs are going up.. including rents AND housing prices. Some articles talk about how people “won’t move here” because they can’t get affordable housing. People will continue moving here if there are jobs to be had at more than average wages.  They’ll figure it out when they get here (much to the chagrin of the local government and homeless shelters).  Here are some facts to think about:
  • Increasing wages means the average person can afford MORE for rent or mortgage payments (Calgary’s affordability index stays healthy);
  • High wages in Alberta, along with the lowest tax rates in the country mean more people will continue to move to Calgary;
  • The more people move here, the lower the vacancy rate will fall;
  • Oil is back solidly over $60.. now at $63 .. like to move towards $70 during the winter.  If it stays anywhere near $60, Alberta continues to create BILLIONS of dollars of surplus and profits
  • The current weakness of the Canadian dollar means more U.S. money will come to Alberta in the near term, continuing to drive the incredible foreign investment Alberta already boasts;
  • Increasing construction costs means it costs more to build a house.. which means they have to sell for more money.. which means prices go up.. which means re-sale housing prices will ALSO go up.
We couldn’t ask to be in a better place for real estate than right here in Alberta! And I think we’re in a buying opportunity right now, because I think the current soft/flat market is just a little breather before things pick up again in the spring. When I tell people I’m in real estate, a lot of people say “real estate sucks.  Managing tenants is a hassle.  It’s too much work”.  I see. Course, there’s a bunch of other ways to own real estate without dealing with tenants.  But why bother trying to convince them. I suppose if that’s your attitude, then you’d best stay out of real estate .. maybe go check out that $18/hour job flipping burgers. Although .. if becoming extraordinarily wealthy in real estate seems like too much work, flipping burgers might be too much for you as well.]]>

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