actually closed above $100 today, for the first time in history. I can’t say I’m surprised, simply because world demand for oil is not going away. While the U.S. economy is in a recession (even though Ben Bernanke denies it – is this guy kidding?) and demand from the U.S. slows for oil, a lot of demand is being picked up by massive emerging economies like China and India. While I do think the U.S. recession is going to drag on Canada’s economy, I do believe that Canada will continue to lead the G8 countries in growth and economic strength over the next few years. The Conference Board of Canada continues to call for Calgary to lead the country in economic growth in 2008 and beyond. Sometimes, it’s tempting to get sucked into all the negative news and opinions that are out there, but that’s when it is critical to go back to market fundamentals and make sure you’re looking at facts, and not emotions. This week there have been articles calling for $150 oil, and in the same paper, opinions that oil will fall to $75. Depending on who you believe, Canada is either going to steam right through the U.S. slowdown and hardly notice the impact, whereas other people suggest Canada’s headed for recession right behind the U.S. Who do you believe? There’s a great fable about a man who owns a hot dog stand in a small town. He has a young son who he decides to send to college. The boy returns from college, and tells his had that there’s a recession coming. He gives him all the economic data to support his position. His dad says, “I haven’t noticed anything and business is up from last year“. His son tells him, “Dad, it’s obvious — it’s everywhere — we’re in a recession and no one’s spending any money. You need to cut your expenses“. So the father takes his son’s advice — after all, he’s the smart college-educated one. So the father cuts his expenses, including his marketing budget. Business slows down, and the father says, “sure enough son .. you were right. There must be a recession, business is down“. So the father shuts the business down because it’s declining and clearly not viable any more. Unfortunately, this situation happens more than you might expect. You have to be careful who you listen to, particularly in volatile times like this. If I wanted to, I could find signals that Canada is headed for trouble. Given the hundreds of economic factors, statistics and indicators, you can almost always create whatever story it is you want to believe by selectively choosing to notice only some of the information. Is Canada headed for disaster? I certainly don’t think so. But that’s because I do more than read the occasional newspaper headline. I dig underneath the media and go to the source, and find out what’s really going on. This goes for our local market here in Calgary, as well as the U.S. market. When people were saying a few months ago ‘the worst is behind us’, I was shaking my head in disbelief. When the media, and even the U.S. Fed STILL, proclaims “we’re not a recession yet and probably won’t see one”, again I shake my head and wonder what people are thinking. Your mind is like a garden, and you choose what you’re going to plant in it. Most people never take the time to tend their garden, and end up with a garden full of weeds. To be successful and wealthy, you MUST regularly tend to that garden, and make sure you’re not letting weeds and dandelions blow around and take root. However, you also need a base level of knowledge and understanding to decide for yourself which information to pay attention to, and what information is just noise. So take it upon yourself to understand what’s going on in the market, and what these indicators actually mean!]]>